Technological predictions for the Year End

Final year age where technology vendors and industry analysts make predictions for the next twelve months. But, in my opinion, I believe we are now in a consolidation phase now of five technology waves, because we cannot fail to add the Internet of things to the waves of mobility, social business, cloud computing and Big Data. We’re leaving the phases of curiosity and proofs of concept to put them into practice. Some are more consolidated as cloud web hosting service¬†providers¬†(almost becoming mainstream) and other, more distant, like big time, but every year, there will be the increasing adoption. But here I would like to focus attention on four motions that seem to me doing exceptionally important: the first is continued evolution of mobility and the consumerization phenomenon, which initiatives BYOD , BYOA or BYOC (read: Bring Your Own Device, App or Cloud) are the most visible parts. Another is the beginning of the adoption curve of cognitive systems, the third will be the impact of 3D printers in society. The room is the concept of DevOps, which accelerates the process of creating gathering systems development and operation. First the mobility and consumerization. Mobility is increasingly present. If we take just one manufacturer, Apple, we see that it alone sells over 200 million mobile devices iPod, iPhone and iPad a year, which is roughly the same number of TV sets sold annually worldwide. The ripening process of mobility is beginning to blur the distinction between what is a business app and an app designed for the end consumer. In daily use apps like WhatsApp, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, We Chat and others are part of professional activities. Maybe the corporations, for further restrictive access policies is limited. But think of professionals such as lawyers and doctors. Their day to day professional and personal life absolutely have no more borders. They use WhatsApp to send messages to their friends as much as their patients / clients. This move will come hard on companies. In the corporate environment, it is increasingly difficult to explain (and convince users) because the downloaded apps stores like AppStore or Google Play are so intuitive and easy to use, interact with videos and intensify social interactions, while internal systems are complicated, present unfriendly interfaces and require days of training and reading manuals. Arguably we live in an environment of intense interaction. In 2002 about 80% of the employees’ performance depended on them. Even today, every employee interacts with at least ten others to make their activities and their performance depends on the efficiency of the degree of connection between him and his peers as well as between it and its customers. About two thirds of employees work much more collaboratively than three years ago and this trend continues accelerating. Will become more visible in 2014. I believe that the BYOD / A / C initiatives will be increasingly widespread and more structured (and important meetings of the executive C-level staff), and less ad hoc as most we’ve seen happen. Another trend is the increasing liberalization of the use of social platforms within companies, which will have less and less reluctant and its use will intensify. Errors will still happen and many companies are likely to fail to define clear and consistent guidelines, but it is a normal process of learning. The fact is that it will be (and already is) simply impossible to prevent users from using their smartphones and tablets. Unless they are forfeited to enter the company. But if they are in home office? We also believe that we will see more and more corporate apps out of mere copying of sites tailored for smaller screens, to systems that actually exploit the resource potential of mobile devices, creating what we call systems of engagement. In all areas this is already happening or will happen. For example in health, creating apps that engage the patient in self monitoring initiatives with direct interaction with the services and their physicians. Or sports, as the case of Nike, which also fosters the creation of an ecosystem based on its platform for developers to create their own applications. I also observe that IT stand apart or try to create obstacles, will simply be bypassed. Today, in many companies, about 80% of the budget that involves direct interference technology has or is under responsibility of executives of the business lines. It is the famous “Shadow IT” that will grow in proportion to IT not respond to the needs of the organization. The second move that will intensify in 2014 are cognitive systems, which are still relatively unknown. Some have heard of IBM’s Watson, but it is important to consider that they will constitute a new class of systems that combine existing technologies with sophisticated predictive algorithms, natural language, and “machine-based learning”. Has great potential in many industries and recently IBM has created a worldwide program to encourage the creation of new cognitive applications with the proposed formation of an ecosystem of new business development. Well worth to visit and analyze existing cases such as Fluid, MD Buyline and Welltok. Cognitive systems are not science fiction and can bring excellent business results. I recommend reading the text “Cognitive systems redefines business potential”. Who knows if it will bring new and innovative applications? I think we will see some of them in 2014, mostly created in the U.S. because currently the Watson only understands American English. This year the curiosity around the theme should be emphasized and will likely see popping events and lectures around the world and maybe even, who knows, one in India … And 3D printers? Oriented began producing prototypes and mockups, but begins to be used for business applications. BMW uses 3D printers to produce special tools it needs to manufacture its cars and that would be very expensive if produced in traditional manufacturing, mass production. Printers tend to fall in price and it is expected that the global market reach 3 billion in 2016 and more than 5 billion dollars in 2020. May produce toys at home (risk of rupture in the retail toy industry?). With home printers, many products sold by online shops (e-commerce) waive the logistics of home delivery of physical products and exchange for permission from the client to download the template and print the product at home. Retailers can create centers of 3D printing to produce customized products and thereby break the division between manufacturing and retail. The logistics will be significantly affected and in the future production of cheap goods may leave countries where labor is cheap to focus on home printers or printing centers in developed countries. The cost factor of labor may be much less important. Interestingly, this 3D printer project can print copies by itself. In summary, we have reality 3D printers in 2014? Some industrial companies using them more intensively, but are still far away from everyday use in our homes. But surely the issue is much discussed.

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